The Crystal Ball Says… Success Is Just Around the Corner, So Grab That Pistol and Follow Me.

Daniel Kahneman

“Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.” – Daniel Kahneman, Born Mar. 5, 1934.

Gurus need to make a lot of predictions. That's really why people follow us at all. People are scared to make bets on the future all by themselves. They lack information and conviction.

But if we can predict it for them – if they can rely on our predictions – we have them eating out of our hands.


Your audience only remembers when you hit. They forget when you don't. If you make a lot of predictions, some are bound to be right. You can bank on those, even if haters drag up all the times you were wrong.

Why do you want to make predictions for your audience? It positions you as having wisdom about the right way to live.

That's what people ultimately want. They want to know the right way to live so that the things they want will come to them. That involves making choices and decisions. Wouldn't those be easier to make if you knew what the outcomes would be in advance?

Being able to make accurate predictions about the future shows that you know what the fuck is going on. They don't. So they follow your lead.

Being WILLING to make predictions about the future shows that you are confident. They are not. So they follow your lead.

But there are no consequences for being wrong. The weatherman never gets fired, right? Just make reasoned guesses. You'll sometimes be right, and sometimes wrong, but you'll only be remembered as being almost always right by the people who give you their attention regularly.

I believe that this is one of the most overlooked, yet easy ways to amass a following. And I know if you take this secret and apply it, you'll see it work for you, to great success.

That's my prediction.

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